销量预测算法在药品标准物质管理中的应用

胡康, 曹丽梅, 高志峰, 邵俊娟, 路勇, 李健

中国药学杂志 ›› 2021, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (16) : 1336-1341.

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中国药学杂志
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中国药学杂志 ›› 2021, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (16) : 1336-1341. DOI: 10.11669/cpj.2021.16.011
论著

销量预测算法在药品标准物质管理中的应用

  • 胡康, 曹丽梅, 高志峰, 邵俊娟, 路勇*, 李健*
作者信息 +

Application of Sales Forecast Algorithm in the Management of Drug Reference Standards

  • HU Kang, CAO Li-mei, GAO Zhi-feng, SHAO Jun-juan, LU Yong*, LI Jian*
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摘要

目的 通过药品标准物质销量预测系统的构建与应用,辅助药品标准物质业务管理部门进行排产决策,减少断货带来的影响。方法 利用2008~2019年收集的数百万条药品标准物质销售数据,通过数据预处理、数据建模对国家药品标准物质中3 682个品种的库存售罄时间开展预测,之后使用2020年的实际售罄数据对预测结果进行验证,根据预测结果对数据预处理过程和模型进行优化。结果与结论 通过2020年4个季度的标准物质实际销售数据验证,销量预测系统的模型预测准确率达到了较高水平,辅助标准物质管理人员制定了更合理的排产计划。

Abstract

OBJECTIVE To better assist drug reference standards management departments in making production scheduling decisions and reduce the impact of stock outs through the construction and application of a drug reference standards sales forecast system. METHODS Based on the sales data of millions of drug reference standards collected from 2008 to 2019, the stock out time of 3682 varieties of national drug reference standards was predicted through data preprocessing and data modeling, then the actual sold-out data in 2020 was used to verify the prediction results, finally the data preprocessing and data modeling were optimized according to the prediction results. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION Through the verification of the actual sales data of reference standards in the four quarters of 2020, the model forecast accuracy rate of the system reaches a high level, and the management personnel of reference materials formulates a more reasonable production scheduling plan with the assist of the model.

关键词

药品标准物质 / 销量预测 / 排产决策 / 数据建模

Key words

drug reference standard / sales forecast / production scheduling decisions / data modeling

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胡康, 曹丽梅, 高志峰, 邵俊娟, 路勇, 李健. 销量预测算法在药品标准物质管理中的应用[J]. 中国药学杂志, 2021, 56(16): 1336-1341 https://doi.org/10.11669/cpj.2021.16.011
HU Kang, CAO Li-mei, GAO Zhi-feng, SHAO Jun-juan, LU Yong, LI Jian. Application of Sales Forecast Algorithm in the Management of Drug Reference Standards[J]. Chinese Pharmaceutical Journal, 2021, 56(16): 1336-1341 https://doi.org/10.11669/cpj.2021.16.011
中图分类号： R917   

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